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It's easy to overestimate the impact of NHL draft
Saturday,  June 27, 2009 3:08 AM
<p>Unearthing gems in the draft, as the Blue Jackets did with Rick Nash in 2002, happens far less frequently than fans might realize.</p>
Neal C. Lauron | Dispatch

Unearthing gems in the draft, as the Blue Jackets did with Rick Nash in 2002, happens far less frequently than fans might realize.

The first round of the NHL draft was staged last night at the Bell Centre in Montreal. The rest of it will be conducted today. This is the weekend of hope, and it numbs the mind to think about all that franchise-building, packed into two days in one place. Holy Tinkertoy.

"The best way to build is through the draft" is one of the oldest bromides in the game, and it is an immutable fact right?

Only to a degree.

The vast majority of teams are just like the Blue Jackets. They build with first-round picks, by keeping them or trading them. Sometimes, they look smart on a second- or third-round pick. Sometimes, they look brilliant on a fifth-, sixth- or seventh-round pick.

We'll know in three to five years.

The Jackets are picking their way through their 10th draft. It seems like yesterday that they were wrapping things up at the Saddledome in Calgary, announcing that Louis Mandeville was their last selection of the ninth round, taken with the 292nd pick. There isn't even a ninth round anymore. Or an eighth.

Ten drafts. Can it be? The team ought to be built to steamroller specifications by now, don't you think?

To give a little perspective, here is the Jackets' all-time all-draft team.

• Forward lines: Rick Nash-Derick Brassard-Jake Voracek; Nikolai Zherdev-Dan Fritsche-Jaroslav Balastik; Nikita Filatov-Gilbert Brule-Jared Boll; Andrew Murray-Lasse Pirjeta-Derek Dorsett.

• Defensive pairs: Rostislav Klesla-Kris Russell; Ole-Kristian Tollefsen-Marc Methot; Petteri Nummelin-Aaron Johnson.

• Goaltenders: Steve Mason, Pascal Leclaire.

I set out to make a roster with four lines, two defensive pairs and two goaltenders. I went through the Jackets' drafts and asked two questions: Who actually played for the team? And what numbers did he put up?

It wasn't difficult settling on 20 players. There were only 22 candidates, if you toss in Alexandre Picard and Steven Goertzen.

Try the exercise yourself. You, too, will have Fritsche centering the second line, Brule the third, Pirjeta the fourth. Remember Pirjeta? Nice guy.

Brule wound up playing the wing, true, but he was drafted as a center -- and he is desperately needed there on the all-draft team. These Jackets are sort of weak down the middle. No shock there.

Balastik, you ask? He had 13 goals in 74 career games -- and he was 6 of 9 in shootouts in 2005-06. On this team, that makes him the second-line right winger. Play for a tie, then play him.

On this team, Nummelin plays 20 minutes a game and anchors the power play. Filatov, with four goals in eight career games, is on the sidewall.

The all-draft team does not have a defenseman that makes you say, "Man, I love having that guy on my team." Russell is the possible exception.

The all-draft team has goaltending.

This is not an exercise to make the Jackets' talent scouts look bad, or to rank role players. If you look at any team's all-draft team over the past 10 years, it will appear equally checkered. I looked at the draft histories of the three other recent expansion teams, and their rate of producing NHL-caliber players is about the same as the Jackets'.

And everyone produces a notable bust every now and again.

For instance, the Minnesota Wild made 70 picks from 2000 to 2008, and only 24 have played at the NHL level. Most of those have been limited to a cup of coffee.

The Jackets made 90 picks over the same span, and 31 have played NHL games. Few have had staying power.

The Jackets loved Picard. The Wild, from the same, weak 2004 draft class, adored A.J. Thelen. So it goes.

When you get down to it, the majority of the picks being made this weekend are virtually throwaways. And that's why I am happy for Jackets fans that their team is out of the lottery and the draft has been denigrated in importance.

For so many years, the draft was a highlight. But it was fool's gold. Now, Jackets supporters are reaching a point where picking No. 16 (or, after the trade, No. 26) is only a mildly interesting endeavor. In five years, we'll all have a good idea whether the kid can really play. In the meantime, get some players who can help posthaste. You know, Tomas Kaberle or Vincent Lecavalier or Dany Heatley or someone like that. Hop to it.

marace@dispatch.com



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